What now for the Blues?

Despite everything National only just won the election on the weekend. They only got 60 seats and require 5 from the other three parties to govern. They are also facing problems in 2014 as who to go with. Act will only ever go with National so we know that so long as Act stay in the house they will vote for the Boys in Blue. The Centre is held by the man we will not name so what should the Blues do?

1) Give the Act/United/Maori parties more media and more success. They need to get party vote so that they will do deals with National. Especially for United and Maori who will do deals with National and will bring across voters who may otherwise voted for the man we will not name. 

2) Invite the Conservatives to a cup of tea. If they had won Rodney they would have brought in a few MPs. They would have acted as a vote stealer from the Reds and also brought across votes from the man we will not name. 

3) Do not let your guard down, Labour will be back and they must be kept under control.

4) Keep refreshing the party. Do not get left with far to many MPs who have been there far to long. In Singapore the PAP select people who are already successful and thus are not in power for the money (unless they are in Cabinet). PAP MPs are people who can pay their own way and thus are not relying on the job as an MP as a job for life. 

5) John should step down well before his use by date (sometime after 2017 and before late 2020), and around the time of his best by date. This will be good for the party and good for him. It will give his successor time to run up to the next election, and he gets to go out on a high. I well recall what occurred to Finna Fail in Ireland when they did not re-new. 

5b) Have 25% new faces in Cabinet. Ministers must perform, sack the worst. A Job as a cabinet minister is not a job for life.

6) Stay in the centre right. Selling assets are right wing policies the result they got this time will not occur again until they have thrown the Labour party out of power again. They must avoid hacking of the floating voters. They must continue to work the policy of doing all major policies with an election mandate. 

7) Do not do anything stupid. Best way of losing the next election. Best way of scaring people into voting for the Red people.

Love it or hate it National will lose one day. If National does not re-new now (before it is to late) and develop  National Friendly parties who it can do deals with it will end up like Labour is now or worse like National was in 2002.

What now for the Blues?

Despite everything National only just won the election on the weekend. They only got 60 seats and require 5 from the other three parties to govern. They are also facing problems in 2014 as who to go with. Act will only ever go with National so we know that so long as Act stay in the house they will vote for the Boys in Blue. The Centre is held by the man we will not name so what should the Blues do?

1) Give the Act/United/Maori parties more media and more success. They need to get party vote so that they will do deals with National. Especially for United and Maori who will do deals with National and will bring across voters who may otherwise voted for the man we will not name. 

2) Invite the Conservatives to a cup of tea. If they had won Rodney they would have brought in a few MPs. They would have acted as a vote stealer from the Reds and also brought across votes from the man we will not name. 

3) Do not let your guard down, Labour will be back and they must be kept under control.

4) Keep refreshing the party. Do not get left with far to many MPs who have been there far to long. In Singapore the PAP select people who are already successful and thus are not in power for the money (unless they are in Cabinet). PAP MPs are people who can pay their own way and thus are not relying on the job as an MP as a job for life. 

5) John should step down well before his use by date (sometime after 2017 and before late 2020), and around the time of his best by date. This will be good for the party and good for him. It will give his successor time to run up to the next election, and he gets to go out on a high. I well recall what occurred to Finna Fail in Ireland when they did not re-new. 

5b) Have 25% new faces in Cabinet. Ministers must perform, sack the worst. A Job as a cabinet minister is not a job for life.

6) Stay in the centre right. Selling assets are right wing policies the result they got this time will not occur again until they have thrown the Labour party out of power again. They must avoid hacking of the floating voters. They must continue to work the policy of doing all major policies with an election mandate. 

7) Do not do anything stupid. Best way of losing the next election. Best way of scaring people into voting for the Red people. 

Ok where to now for the Reds?

Mr Kiwiblog has done a very good post on what Labour must do to win the next election on his Stuff Blog.

I must agree with what he has said.

Geoff standing down is occurring far too early. They must review why they lost and then change the leader.

They must

1) Get rid of the old guard. Keep a few to help the rest but out with the rest. Sadly this election has done the opposite.
2) Move to the centre. Stop attacking popular Blue policies such as National Standards, and three strikes. If the Blues can keep interest free student loans so can you.
3) Do not be held hostage to the unions. Out with 1970's union policies, in with the national standards. Get a membership base which is apart from the unions. All Union members are labour party members, all unions pay money to Labour.
4) Re-build links with buissness. Show that you are buissness friendly. Do not scare away people who are going to vote for you. A rise in the minimum wage is nice but what about losing jobs?.
5) Have a root and branch review, National did this in 2002 and this worked out well.
6) Get a new face, a leader who can connect with the voters. Somebody who was not in when Helen was there. Someone who will be a Natural person like Key.
7) Fight asset sales. Keep up the pressure - 2/3rds of those polled oppose this. Geoff should have announced that they were going to start a Citizens initiated referendum on asset sales. It would have kept the focus on the issue and not let it die. It would have also given Labour the spotlight on this issue and kept it away from the Green's and Winston.

The reds need to tone down scary policies. Like raising the pension age (which must be done) and liberal reforms such as smacking bans. The big scary policy they had was spending. When the country is in recession spending money is no longer cool. People become more conservative. They need to give the impression they will be a steady hand. They need to increase their vote to the 30's or 40's so people will think they will not be run by the Greens.

Labour will be back again (as Muldoon said it is always nice to have Labour in for a term - all the Lino's gone). The thing is how long that will take.

The award for the best closing statement goes to

The funniest closing statement:

Legalize cannabis. - The wonders of hemp. I thought that they wanted dope legal. It was like they were on a drug trip (maybe they were)

Good graphics - Greens.

Most boring ad - Only the party faithful could love this. It was a failure it was a bomb. Please there is more to National than John.

Getting thin Good wishes to David (Mr Kiwiblog)

I wish to complement Mr Kiwiblog for his recent weight loss. It is quite a battle to cut the waist line and it is even harder to keep the weight off afterwards (thank god for the bicycle) .

Labour is not so bad, but what about their friends

Labour are an OK party. They are by no means perfect but at least we can bear them and sometimes they do good stuff. However Labour is not dong that well which means that in a left wing government they will have less clout.

Who are their friends?

Well those who want to spend, spend and spend. Now to be fair this spending will do much good if it spent well. But everything you spend has to be earned or borrowed. And since we are in the red at the moment we need to save as much as possible.
The thing with borrowing money is that you should be able to pay it back. Now that is fine with a mortgage because you need the house and will pay it back, but if you were to try and pay your daily spending off with the credit card, there is only so long you can go before you run out of cash.
Now things like Green Energy are great if they are going to pay themselves back, but I doubt the government will sell them off to pay the construction costs or use the dividend costs to reduce debt.

The other friend is Winston. And you know what I think of him.

Then we have Mana - thankfully Mana will be a one man band, but Mana is very left radical supported by John Minto and Bradford. I am sure these people mean well but I still disagree with most of what they want.

Finally we have the Greens, thankfully they have mellowed a little but then they have their hard core liberal  addenda.

Tomorrow I am voting Right by voting for the blue team.

Things I like about Labour - From a National Party Voter

Despite the fact I am voting blue, there are some things I like about Labour.

1) They gave New Zealand Rodger Douglas and Richard Prebble. By the early 1980's National under Muldoon was going no where, was stuck with far to many civil servants and doing things such as running business which they had no need to be in. New Zealand needed to break up the old way of doing things and these two people did a lot of work to achieve this.

2) They gave us Kiwisaver. Kiwisaver builds up savings and helps people in their old age along with buying their own home. The worst factor of Kiwisaver was that they should have started sooner (although they did try in the 1970's) and that it was not compulsory (but they had to do that at first to get it past the anti compulsory savings crowd). Yet Bill English was quite against Kiwisaver.

3) They are generally ok. Despite the fact they are centre left, they are still a centralist party and thus will not leave the place in a mess, compared to what some people like Mana would do. New Zealand survived Helen Clark, we did not get invaded, we stayed in surplus (although some tax cuts would be nice), roads got built, ( I can not say the trains ran on time due to the fact we do not have very many trains!), We got a free trade pact with China. Many things Labour did were supported by National (I understand many bills past by both National or Labour governments receive joint support such is the nature of politics).

I would survive a Labour Government and enjoy their Kiwisaver policies, but harm would be done to other areas of the economy (take at $15 minimum wage for example).

4) Raising the Pension age. When Act supports Labour take notice. We are all getting older and somebody needs to pay the bill. I guess John Key is hoping that somebody else will raise the pension age because he made an irresponsible promise not to raise it while he was PM.

I would like to note however that the problem with Labours policy is that they will be raising it far to slowly.

Some may ask where is number 5 a nuclear free NZ. Well I oppose the Labour Nuclear Free policy.

Why you should vote right

Mr Kiwiblog has given his reasons to vote National.

Here are mine

1) Stable government. No antics by Winston. National will most likley get an absolute majority and thus will not be held hostage by the minor parties. However Labour will be held

2) Balance the books with less debt. National will be borrowing less than Labour. National has a natural inclination to spend less and be more responsible with the government funds (except for Muldoon and Rodger Douglas). I like the idea of Labour's tax free threshold but we need to balance the books first.

3) Conservative. Centre right parties generally have more conservative persons in them so there is less chance of an Aunty Helen's liberal change agenda.

4) Keep the three strikes policy. While there are a few flaws in the policy it makes one thing clear to the offender, they know what will happen if they keep breaking the law. If this policy had been in place years ago many offenders would not have committed hideous crimes. Labour wants to destroy this policy and is not giving a great reason. A third strike offender can not claim that they were not aware of the consequences and we are only applying it to violent offenders.

5) Welfare reform. We have far to many people on the dole or the DBP. While many people need the state's help (such as my mother) we need to keep numbers low not only to save money (always important in a recession) but to give better outcomes. I recall when I was on the Dole in Ireland, doing the FAS work placement was great because I was doing something to keep me occupied and I was learning. It gave me something to do every day.
For the case of the DBP we can not afford to have long term dependency for the sake of the parent and more importantly for the sake of the child (as many welfare mums were also welfare children). What is Labour offering - more of the same.

6) Keep 90 days. Sometimes it not going to work out. Best have a risk free trial so that both sides can see if it works. Anyway bosses hate firing people.

I'm voting for MMP and STV as the best alternative

On election day I will vote to keep MMP.

I know it may bring in Winston, I know it brings in minor parties but I want a fair system. Every vote should count. Under FFP if you do not vote for the two highest vote getters your vote did not count, worse it may mean that your second choice candidate may not win either. I know people like a conclusive result and stable government, but we have gotten this from MMP as well. No government yet has lost a supply and confidence vote.

Why STV over the other options, because FFP is bad (see above), PV is better than FFP but still is suspect to gerrymandering, and love my seat itis. It is also not proportional. SM is better than PV but the problem is that 75% of the seats in parliamentary are for electorate MP's. It hands power to the big parties and the FFP style of voting for the electorate seats is wrong. I may feel different if it were 75% list seats.

Why STV
* It is proportional (very important)
* Every vote counts.
* Personal Mandate for all MP's
* Local MP is National and Labour and somebody else.
But STV means there is serious pork barrel politics, and it is not as proportional as MMP.

I agree

Must agree with Steve and his comment on Winston on the Stuff Blog.

steve   #8   1:17pm

Winston Peters - Imagine if rather than campaigning he was applying for a job. Which he affectivly is... "Ummm - Well I was fired from my last 3 jobs and then spend the last 3 years out of work. As for what I plan to do for your company...I'll just wait until things come up and them make up my mind. No I dont really have any policy or plans". The guy is a joke who is in it for his ego and no other reason.

What a ho hum debate

Last nights TV3 debate was pretty mundane. All we learn is that Kiwibank is not for sale and Geoff keeps talking about his electorate. At least there were no calls of liars. That just spoils the debate.

Geoff is fighting the cycle (at the moment he is at the bottom). While he would make a nice PM his days are numbered, his party will dispose of him the moment they can after the election. He is facing a messy time should he win because while his party will be the biggest, there would also be the Greens, Mana and NZ First. All would want their slice of the cake and all have their own agendas. It is much more simple with National.

And the great news is that National will work not work with Winston. This makes it clear that a vote for Winston is a vote for Labour because it is clear that National will not be working with him. The thing is will NZ First come back next election or will they die a slow death over several elections hoping that the next one will be the one.

The interesting thing is that the worm was not working, we were told that there was an independent pannel of voters, but now Kiwiblog has found out that there were some very poor selections for members of this panel. I hope we have some explanations. 

What on earth. Please explain

We expect speedy justice. We understand that some criminal cases take longer than others because work is required on the prosecution. But what on earth is going on here.

Police have failed for five months to investigate a woman who systematically stole up to $80,000 from her employer.

And this is despite police being handed a written confession.

This is an open and shut case so what on earth is going on. Somebody needs to tell us what is going on.

Bible Verse

1 Corinthians 1:30-31

New International Version (NIV)

³⁰ It is because of him that you are in Christ Jesus, who has become for us wisdom from God—that is, our righteousness, holiness and redemption. ³¹ Therefore, as it is written: “Let the one who boasts boast in the Lord.”

Election Report

So how are the parties doing this election?

We have an old a tired opposition living of the past trying to get back on power. Labour does not get it, they are putting out policy like there is no tomorrow but their brand is dead. Until they have had time to disassociate themselves from the Clark years along with the social change that Clark and co supported. What is more they are going and pandering to their roots. Geoff looks like yesterdays man since he has been there for 30 years.

The pandering to their roots helps keep their base happy (take their compulsory unionism policy aka national awards for example) but does not help them connect with their Kiwi voters.

If I were to help Labour I would.

1) Clean ship - new faces and new names.
2) Roll Geoff or roll his plotters out of parliament. A party should have no leadership issues.
3) Do not do the tea cup scandal stuff.
4) Wait and be there, John Key will not be popular forever (Helen was once popular to now she is gone (bye bye  Helen).
5) Get their votes back from the Greens.
6) Find the key issue that will ring with the voters. (Don Brash did this once).

Mean while the Greens are having a ball - sort of.
They are high in the polls which is great for them since an election or so ago they were at 5%. Problem for them is who do they go out with. If they take the line they will never support National then Labour knows that it has them hook line and sinker.
But if they offer to support National then they alienate their base supporters which hurts them, despite the fact that it gives them power next time Labour wants to talk to them.

One of their MPs was saying that they would want National to change quite a lot before they went out with National. Well does a party on 13% of the polls have the power to force a party at 50% of the polls to change? No. In New Zealand we need a government where smaller parties make policy proportional to their vote not their wishes. Besides they need to Bargain.

As for National, they are having a good cup of tea. Sort of.
The tea tapes have distracted the media from Labour and given sympathy to John Key. They are doing exceptionally well and stand to go down in history as one of those absolute majorities. If John Key wanted to go out in Glory he should quit just after the election. I doubt he will ever have a result this good.

National even had a chance to kill Act. How? by not supporting Banks and keeping Epsom. Because it comes down to this. With an absolute majority National does not need the Act votes in parliament. If it kills Act this election it it could easily become like the Alliance or the Democrats for Social Credit (anyone remember them?).

Now people may note that they may need ACT at the next election. Well if they are dead, then who do ACT voters give their votes to? The Greens, Labour, Winston? No National is the next best fit.

That said I personally like having Act around and voted for them at the last election. They make a nice home for National supporters who are a bit to radical for National but will support National. But I will not be supporting ACT this time because of all their fights and because they may not get back in.

The thing National needs to do after the election is keep themselves fresh. If they have a cabinet full of the same old faces as last time they are running the risk of becoming a TOG (Tired old Government) this was most evident with Finna Fail in Ireland under  Brian Cowen who failed to re-shuffle when required. By the time he got around to doing this just before the election it was seen for what it was a pointless gesture by a failed government.
National also need to keep major unpopular policy announcements conditional on winning the next election. This helps keep the trust with the voters.

So there you have it. Labour facing a thrashing, the Greens going up but where to and National never had it this good in a long time.

The Irish are going north

I read in the Irish Independent that

THOUSANDS of shoppers are expected to flood back across the Border after the Government increases VAT on a huge range of household items.


Go north because there was a 2% increase in VAT?

It costs about 20 Euro for a return bus ticket to the north never mind travel time, or the cost of getting to the bus station. To save 20 euro one would need to spend over 1000 euro.

What a pointless media hype.

Enough with the tea party

I am sick of the tea party tapes. This is a storm in a tea cup. New Zealand has major issues facing it such as unemployment, a deficit and yet all the media care about is the tea tape. The media are wasting the public's time when there are far greater issues to deal with.

Even if all the allegations are correct ACT is polling at less than 2 percent or two MPs. They will have minimal influence in the new parliament. What is the matter?.

At the same time there is referendum on the voting system. Yet little time is being given over to this issue. Still I suppose as a supporter of MMP that is a good thing. 

What is wrong with the Default Kiwisaver schemes?

Whaleoil opposes the Green's idea of creating a single default government run Kiwisaver scheme. He feels that it is pointless to replicate the work of the private sector.

And he has a point, if it is not broken why fix it.

Well there is something broken with the current model. Profit.

Each one of the default schemes is out to make a profit (no harm in that they are not charities) but that profit reduces the amount of money available to the investor. Since most members are invested for decades the lower the fees they pay the more they will get back.

I recall getting a statement from IrishLife setting out the fees I would pay on my investment (a PRSA) with them and noted that after nearly 40 years they were enormous.

My recommendation is that when the current default contract runs out in 2014, the Government would set up a default Kiwisaver scheme modelled on the current NZ Superfund. Any other non profit scheme could join this arrangement and thus provide options for the public.

Kiwisaver

My dream is for compulsory Kiwisaver. Everyone who is in NZ contributing 10% of their income to Kiwisaver. I dream of fat Kiwisaver accounts creating jobs and investment in New Zealand. There would be thousands of people who will have great retirements because they have funds available. Because who wants to live on $14000 a year.

And yet the party who opposes this is National. And I will be voting National.

Why is National not seeing the light.?

Winston Not Winston

Winston Peters.

Well first I would like to acknowledge that despite what I do not like about him he has some good traits. He worked well as Minister of Foreign affairs getting NZ's relationship with the USA back in one piece. I also hear he was good fun to talk to on the one plane trip according to a boss of mine.

That said I do not want him back in Parliament. Because then he has the balance of power. And you do not know who you are voting for. Labour or National (thank god John Key will not work with him). And this time he has said he will support no-one at all. How will that work. Will the Next government need a 55% majority to pass the budget.?

Winston is not a team player, he was fired twice from Ministerial office by Bodger and Shipply. He was I believe suspended under Clark.

His party is all about him. Rather than about the party. His party without him would die (or would it be better off). New Zealand needs a good centre party but because the show has become the Winston show. Take the Greens for example, when Mr Rod Donald died, they did not fall apart they did not disappear. Because they are an ideology and a brand.

The only person you know in the NZ First Party is Winston. At least with Act you know numbers 1 and 2 on the list (Banks and Brash). That said most people do not know many back benchers. 

Around the world on the dole and now he is a fool

I see from Whaleoil that a Mr Freedom has posted a video link justifying his taxpayer funded holiday.

Mr Freedom does not get it.

A prosecution will love this youtube clip. Nothing would make them happier. What a lovely aid in the trial and just lovely for sentencing. It is just to good to be true. He will get the book thrown at him. He will become Mr Inmate.

That said I suspect he will never return to NZ because he knows what will happen to him. He has a Dutch passport so I suspect he will have to live with the Europeans.

But even then he still is a fool. Can you trust him as an employer. One search on Google will bring out his name and then good bye job offer.

He is also a fool, because he goes and attacks the government. Because of what he has done his attack is weak and useless. What is more he is likely to bring more public support for the government. This is because government reforms have stopped him from getting more taxpayer cash.