So how are the parties doing this election?
We have an old a tired opposition living of the past trying to get back on power. Labour does not get it, they are putting out policy like there is no tomorrow but their brand is dead. Until they have had time to disassociate themselves from the Clark years along with the social change that Clark and co supported. What is more they are going and pandering to their roots. Geoff looks like yesterdays man since he has been there for 30 years.
The pandering to their roots helps keep their base happy (take their compulsory unionism policy aka national awards for example) but does not help them connect with their Kiwi voters.
If I were to help Labour I would.
1) Clean ship - new faces and new names.
2) Roll Geoff or roll his plotters out of parliament. A party should have no leadership issues.
3) Do not do the tea cup scandal stuff.
4) Wait and be there, John Key will not be popular forever (Helen was once popular to now she is gone (bye bye Helen).
5) Get their votes back from the Greens.
6) Find the key issue that will ring with the voters. (Don Brash did this once).
Mean while the Greens are having a ball - sort of.
They are high in the polls which is great for them since an election or so ago they were at 5%. Problem for them is who do they go out with. If they take the line they will never support National then Labour knows that it has them hook line and sinker.
But if they offer to support National then they alienate their base supporters which hurts them, despite the fact that it gives them power next time Labour wants to talk to them.
One of their MPs was saying that they would want National to change quite a lot before they went out with National. Well does a party on 13% of the polls have the power to force a party at 50% of the polls to change? No. In New Zealand we need a government where smaller parties make policy proportional to their vote not their wishes. Besides they need to Bargain.
As for National, they are having a good cup of tea. Sort of.
The tea tapes have distracted the media from Labour and given sympathy to John Key. They are doing exceptionally well and stand to go down in history as one of those absolute majorities. If John Key wanted to go out in Glory he should quit just after the election. I doubt he will ever have a result this good.
National even had a chance to kill Act. How? by not supporting Banks and keeping Epsom. Because it comes down to this. With an absolute majority National does not need the Act votes in parliament. If it kills Act this election it it could easily become like the Alliance or the Democrats for Social Credit (anyone remember them?).
Now people may note that they may need ACT at the next election. Well if they are dead, then who do ACT voters give their votes to? The Greens, Labour, Winston? No National is the next best fit.
That said I personally like having Act around and voted for them at the last election. They make a nice home for National supporters who are a bit to radical for National but will support National. But I will not be supporting ACT this time because of all their fights and because they may not get back in.
The thing National needs to do after the election is keep themselves fresh. If they have a cabinet full of the same old faces as last time they are running the risk of becoming a TOG (Tired old Government) this was most evident with Finna Fail in Ireland under Brian Cowen who failed to re-shuffle when required. By the time he got around to doing this just before the election it was seen for what it was a pointless gesture by a failed government.
National also need to keep major unpopular policy announcements conditional on winning the next election. This helps keep the trust with the voters.
So there you have it. Labour facing a thrashing, the Greens going up but where to and National never had it this good in a long time.
We have an old a tired opposition living of the past trying to get back on power. Labour does not get it, they are putting out policy like there is no tomorrow but their brand is dead. Until they have had time to disassociate themselves from the Clark years along with the social change that Clark and co supported. What is more they are going and pandering to their roots. Geoff looks like yesterdays man since he has been there for 30 years.
The pandering to their roots helps keep their base happy (take their compulsory unionism policy aka national awards for example) but does not help them connect with their Kiwi voters.
If I were to help Labour I would.
1) Clean ship - new faces and new names.
2) Roll Geoff or roll his plotters out of parliament. A party should have no leadership issues.
3) Do not do the tea cup scandal stuff.
4) Wait and be there, John Key will not be popular forever (Helen was once popular to now she is gone (bye bye Helen).
5) Get their votes back from the Greens.
6) Find the key issue that will ring with the voters. (Don Brash did this once).
Mean while the Greens are having a ball - sort of.
They are high in the polls which is great for them since an election or so ago they were at 5%. Problem for them is who do they go out with. If they take the line they will never support National then Labour knows that it has them hook line and sinker.
But if they offer to support National then they alienate their base supporters which hurts them, despite the fact that it gives them power next time Labour wants to talk to them.
One of their MPs was saying that they would want National to change quite a lot before they went out with National. Well does a party on 13% of the polls have the power to force a party at 50% of the polls to change? No. In New Zealand we need a government where smaller parties make policy proportional to their vote not their wishes. Besides they need to Bargain.
As for National, they are having a good cup of tea. Sort of.
The tea tapes have distracted the media from Labour and given sympathy to John Key. They are doing exceptionally well and stand to go down in history as one of those absolute majorities. If John Key wanted to go out in Glory he should quit just after the election. I doubt he will ever have a result this good.
National even had a chance to kill Act. How? by not supporting Banks and keeping Epsom. Because it comes down to this. With an absolute majority National does not need the Act votes in parliament. If it kills Act this election it it could easily become like the Alliance or the Democrats for Social Credit (anyone remember them?).
Now people may note that they may need ACT at the next election. Well if they are dead, then who do ACT voters give their votes to? The Greens, Labour, Winston? No National is the next best fit.
That said I personally like having Act around and voted for them at the last election. They make a nice home for National supporters who are a bit to radical for National but will support National. But I will not be supporting ACT this time because of all their fights and because they may not get back in.
The thing National needs to do after the election is keep themselves fresh. If they have a cabinet full of the same old faces as last time they are running the risk of becoming a TOG (Tired old Government) this was most evident with Finna Fail in Ireland under Brian Cowen who failed to re-shuffle when required. By the time he got around to doing this just before the election it was seen for what it was a pointless gesture by a failed government.
National also need to keep major unpopular policy announcements conditional on winning the next election. This helps keep the trust with the voters.
So there you have it. Labour facing a thrashing, the Greens going up but where to and National never had it this good in a long time.
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